During the next year I will be making the switch in my astronomy course from the standard textbook (Explorations/Arny) I have been using for ten years to an open source text. Not an easy decision to make. The text I have been using always got great feedback from my students and in a pedagogical sense, was quite excellent in relating astronomy to phenomena we see in our daily lives. When I designed the course back in 2005, the text, smartly sequenced, served as the backbone to organizing the course.
When I started teaching, the text ran from $75-$110 (used/new) and included the Starry Night planetarium software. Starry Night runs about $50 if buying separately so the students got an excellent value here. Around 2010, the publisher discontinued including Starry Night but I was able to replace that in the course with the freeware Stellarium. Still, the cost of the text (along with all other texts) continued to skyrocket. Currently, the new edition goes for $240 placing a financial hardship on the students. Too many students were delaying or avoiding all together buying the text and the change simply had to be made. For all the great attributes of that text, none of it is any good if the students are unable to purchase it.
Switching to the OpenStax Astronomy text has some definite advantages. The online versions has links for each section that can be embedded in the course web platform. The big plus is its free, meaning the students will have access to it as soon as the course opens up for the semester. The text was designed for a two semester sequence and as my course is one semester, it does require some significant planning to pull out which sections to use and which ones not to. Obviously, I can’t expect my students to read 1,100 pages for a three credit hour course.
Given the current inability of traditional publishers to provide affordable textbooks, this does appear to be the future. When it comes to change, it’s better to be ahead of the curve rather than behind.
That being said, the original text book has become almost like an old friend. Even though it will cease to be used in the course, it will always have a prominent place on my bookshelf as a reminder of the over 1,000 students I have taught with it.
With some 60,000,000 votes tallied for Trump, I am aware there are among those votes diverse motivations. Many voted for Trump in the hope he would focus on the revival of the manufacturing sector. If I thought his policy team would prioritize pushing unemployment down to 4%, offer more access to trade school/college for retraining, and so on, I would not have written this post. However, there is no denying the racist tone of the Trump campaign and its negative effect on the nation. This post is specifically geared towards that aspect of the upcoming Trump presidency.
With the election over and the surprise result in, the punditry is engaged in a fit of self-examination over the lack of understanding of the “forgotten” white working class. This ongoing media tragicomedy includes proposed Marlin Perkins type forays into the heartland. Like many disasters, this one has a confluence of causes. The Northern racial aspect of the Trump campaign, as in the South, has its origins in labor history. While in the South racial antipathy has its roots in slavery, in the North its roots are in market competition, or elimination thereof.
In 2016, when we apply for a job, we put together a resume with our job experience, education, and accomplishments. In the old industrial economy, social/political machine connections played an oversized role. In Buffalo, various ethnic groups lived in insular neighborhoods. The Polish lived on the East Side, Irish on the South Side, and Italians on the West Side. These ethnic groups would come to dominate certain industries such as the Irish on the waterfront. How do you keep the other ethnic groups out? You assign them inferior status using ethnic slurs and stereotypes are part of the enforcement mechanism.
While these various groups would bump up against each other from time to time, they formed an equilibrium in a region that was growing in jobs and population. The great migration of African-Americans from the South during the 1950’s and 60’s was on a local scale, regarded as a competitive threat much like current immigration is viewed nationally among the white working class. From 1940-70, Buffalo’s African-American population grew from 18,000 to 72,000. Some found good paying jobs in manufacturing, but most were locked out of the job market and the housing market as well due to redlining. I recall the reaction in my white working class neighborhood when the first black family moved in during the mid-70’s. Pamphlets with, from what we would call today Alt-Right, were passed around with swastikas.
Swastikas, even in that difficult situation, were considered outside the norm. There were plenty of World War II veterans still alive at the time. However, a strong and violent reaction ensued necessitating a police car stationed outside the house 24 hours a day. About a year or so later, the family moved out. This was around the same time the industrial economy began to falter intensifying the competition for jobs.
The public (but not catholic) educational system specialized in class replication. That is, preparing us for a life employed in manufacturing. One morning, delivering the old Courier-Express, the headlines announced 5,000 layoffs at Bethlehem Steel. During the same day, I attended a shop class that presented a lecture on the basics of steel making. Even though it was obvious the manufacturing ship was sinking, the inertia of the educational system kept moving forward like the Titanic until it hit the iceberg.
Class replication was also enforced outside the school system. For some, who attended high school on the college track, could be met with an onslaught of slurs from both friends and family. It was not uncommon for some who received offers to attend college prep high schools to turn it down for that reason. I think of this often when I hear of working class rage against the educational elite. How many working class kids from that era could have escaped the economic trap of the post-industrial age in a different setting?
As an adult, you realize the verbal abuse slung around was simply from people who had little control of their lives and this was one way for them to exercise power. Real small-minded stuff. However, for a teenager, it can difficult to navigate that storm.
When discussing the working class today, those cultural mechanisms are still in place. While the ethnic neighborhoods have by and large dissipated and merged into a single white self-identity, the reflex to discriminate against African-Americans (the way Muslim is now used as an epitaph is an euphemism for the n-word) and newer immigrants still exists. And that includes many who have since exited the working class. Even if one is not a racist, and many in the white working class are not, you still benefit economically within the confines of this system. What the Trump campaign has done is expand the norms how such discrimination is discussed.
The first time I ventured into Queens during the mid-eighties, it bore a striking resemblance to Buffalo. The biggest difference is Queens was more light manufacturing rather than heavy manufacturing based, but by and large, pretty much working class. The Trump family had left the working class by then and Donald was operating in Manhattan, but as the campaign showed, he still understood the racial buttons to push. However, unlike past candidates who used dog whistles (states rights, welfare, etc,) Trump, being Trump, used a bullhorn.
Throughout the campaign nebulous ties were established with the Alt-Right. During the aforementioned Buffalo neighborhood incident, the hate groups spewing swastika laced pamphlets were considered cranks with just a single neighborhood bookstore operation. Even in a racial situation that was pretty tense. Now those same type of groups have a link to the Oval Office. And the effect is rippling down to the ground level with increased attacks on minority/immigrant communities. Certainly, many in the white working class do not embrace this, but it’s undeniable racism permeates our society and those who do embrace/ignore this drove the rise of Trump to the presidency.
However, what succeeded decades ago within the confines of insular neighborhoods for the white working class to secure employment and resources by eliminating competition will fail on a national level. The opposition is too great (Hillary Clinton drew 2 million more votes than Trump). In a flip-flop of historical trends, resistance to discrimination on the ground level will blunt the federal government. Trump’s trade policy, as outlined in another post, will not bring 1955 back. At any rate, with telecommuting, neighborhoods do not geographically tie down jobs as they once did. Paul Ryan, public university graduate/Ayn Rand fanboy, wants to scale back Medicare which strikes at the core of the Trump base. While manufacturing jobs have actually increased by 800,000 nationally since 2010 and are expected to rise 17,000 locally the next five years, will the Trump administration address age discrimination or skill training required for older whites to be hired for these jobs? Does not seem likely. Meanwhile, America will continue its inexorable change into a more diverse society.
Personally, I find this change refreshing. Why would I want to be locked in the social norms of a particular ethnic group? I’d rather choose my own destiny. There is a cliche that the white working class votes against its own interest. On a macro scale that can be true. On a micro scale, some individuals view the ability to discriminate (or to be non-PC) as protecting their economic safe space. What has happened is that space is growing smaller by the day and will continue to do so.
This election was not about inducing change but avoiding it. And avoiding that change, regardless who is president, is not possible. A common comeback from the most strident Trump supporters is “F*** you, we won.” It’s the same yelp I heard decades ago from those who had little power in their lives. The reality is, by insulating one’s self to change, you risk being left behind. And that’s not the direction to go, either personally or the nation as a whole.
“Seen from out here, everything seems different, time bends, space is boundless, it squashes a man’s ego.” – Charlton Heston in The Planet of the Apes on the relativistic effects of traveling near the speed of light.
The Statue of Liberty just celebrated its 130th birthday which reminded me of the famous ending of the original Planet of the Apes. For me, the beginning of this movie is important as it was the first time I had encountered the concept of relativity and time travel. That is, time will move more slowly for a person in motion than for a person who is stationary. This effect is not noticeable with the slow velocities in which we travel on Earth but becomes more pronounced when moving towards the speed of light. And give Planet of the Apes credit, it gets it right, unlike say Star Trek, which often takes a cavalier attitude towards relativity for dramatic purposes. The video below is the beginning two minutes where this plot device is introduced.
One caveat here, even during the height of the Mad Men era, NASA did not allow smoking during its missions. The scientist mentioned, Dr. Hasslien, is a fictitious character. The chronometer puts the ship year at 1972 but the Earth year at 2673. By the time the ship lands, it is the year 3978.
So how does this premise work? We can start by looking at Einstein’s time dilation equation:
Δt’ = Δt/[1 – (v2/c2)]1/2 where:
Δt’ = time elapsed on Earth
Δt = time elapsed on spacecraft
v = velocity of spacecraft
The exponent of 1/2 is another way of saying square root.
c = speed of light (3 x 108 m/s or 186,282 miles per second)
When an object is stationary (v = 0) the denominator on the right side equals one. Thus, Δt’ = Δt and both clocks run at the same rate. As v approaches c, the term v2/c2 approaches 1. This increases the value of the right side of the equation meaning Δt’ must increase to keep both sides of the equation equal. Lets take a look at a couple of examples.
The velocity of the International Space Station is about 5 miles per second or 8000 m/s. What is the time dilation effect of an astronaut who spends a year aboard the station?
Δt = one year or 3.15 x 107 seconds
v = 8000 m/s
Plugging into the equation gives:
Δt’ = 3.15 x 107 s/[1 – (8000 m/s)2/(3 x 108 m/s)2]1/2
Δt’ = 3.15 x 107 s/[1 -(6.4 x 107 m2/s2/9.0 x 1016 m2/s2)]1/2
Before the final calculation, a couple things to note. You have to standardize your dimensions before calculating. In physics, this usually means converting to meters/kilograms/seconds. Not doing this is a common mistake for students taking their first physics course. Also, the term m2/s2 cancels out leaving us with only seconds in the answer. Since we are measuring time, checking dimensions will make sure you are on the right track. So, the answer is:
Δt’ = 3.15 x 107 s/[1 -(7.11 x 10-10)]1/2
Δt’ = 3.15 x 107 s (0.99999999964)
Δt’ = 31499999.99 s
So on Earth, our clocks advanced 31,500,000 seconds and the astronauts in orbit clocks advanced 31,499,999.99 seconds, so the ISS astronaut would have aged about 1/100 of a second less than us on Earth.* What would happen if you were to spend a year traveling at 99% the speed of light? Here, we can use fraction of light speed in the equation as the dimensions will drop out.
Δt’ = 3.15 x 107 s/[1 – (0.98c/1c)]1/2 0.98 being 0.99 squared.
Δt’ = 3.15 x 107 s/(0.02)1/2
Δt’ = 3.15 x 107 s/(0.141)
Δt’= 223,404,255 s or 7.1 years
If we up the speed to 99.9% of light speed, Δt’ becomes 22.3 years. To get the time dilation effect seen in Planet of the Apes you would need to travel about 99.99999% of light speed. The graph below shows the time dilation effect with changing velocity.
Credit: Wiki Commons
You’ll note the time dilation effect does not show up significantly until you reach 40% of light speed or about 75,000 miles per second. That speed would get you to the Moon in 3 seconds. The effect has an upper bound at the speed of light. That is, the time dilation effect approaches infinity as velocity nears light speed. In fact, once you hit the speed of light, your clock would stand still. And there’s no going back. The time travel possibility is a one way ticket forward as going faster than light speed is required to move backwards in time. In Einstein’s universe, nothing can travel faster than light speed. The reason for this is mass increases when velocity increases.
Newton’s second law states that force is equal to mass times acceleration. The assumption here is that mass is constant and thus, all the force results in accelerating an object. Einstein discovered that as an object approaches light speed, mass is not constant and approaches infinity. The equation to determine mass with velocity is as follows:
m = m0/[(1 – v2/c2)]1/2
m0 = rest mass
m = mass in motion
When velocity is 0, m = m0. To apply this to the Planet of the Apes scenario, lets assume the mass of the space vehicle is the same as the Apollo command/service module at 15,000 kg (33,000 lbs). If we accelerate to 99.99999% of light speed, its mass would increase to 33.5 million kg (74,000,000 lbs) or about 12 Saturn V rockets. At this point, more force gets decreasing returns in velocity as the spacecraft’s mass increases and becomes more difficult to push.
The term (1 – v2/c2)1/2 is referred to as the Lorentz transformation and is frequently seen in special relativity equations. For shorthand, is is often symbolized by γ. Besides time and mass, length is also impacted by velocity and contracts as an object approaches light speed. The Hyperphysics website has some nifty relativity calculators you can check out here.
Our first attempts to reach another star will not be in large starships such as the U.S.S. Enterprise of Star Trek fame. More than likely, it will be in a fleet of tiny spacecraft such as proposed by Stephen Hawking for Operation Starshot. Using nanotechnology, the goal is to send thousands of 20 gram (about 0.7 oz.) probes to our nearest interstellar neighbor Alpha Centauri. Light sail technology would propel these vessels to 20% of light speed. At this rate, the mass of each probe would only increase from 20 to 20.4 grams. Even if velocity reached 80% of light speed, the mass increase would only be to a manageable 32 grams. Having thousands of smaller probes rather than one large craft increases the odds that the mission reaches its final destination even if some get damaged along the way.
To sum it all up, the faster you move through space, the slower you move through time. Also, motion brings about an increase in mass. Both these effects do not become pronounced until you reach 40% light speed, which does not happen to us here on Earth. Time stands still at the speed of light and mass approaches infinity as you close in on light speed. This makes human travel to the stars very problematic. Of course, in The Planet of the Apes, the crew basically made a round trip to Earth. Charlton Heston discovers that when happening across the ruins of Lady Liberty.
Never did understand why all those apes speaking perfect English did not clue him in to that beforehand.
*If we were to delve into general relativity, gravity slows clocks the same as velocity does as seen in Interstellar. This means being on a planet surface with greater gravity slows your clock compared to someone in orbit. This offsets the velocity time dilation for astronauts in orbit. Factoring the two, astronauts age about a millionth of a second less than us here on Earth.
**Photo atop post is the chronometer on Heston’s spacecraft. Credit: 20 Century Fox.
We tend to think of the Earth as apart from the rest of the universe. That is natural as astronomy is the science of looking away from our home planet. While there are many things in space we do not experience in our daily lives such as relativistic effects and black holes, there are other phenomena in space that are closely related to our day-to-day lives. Some introductory astronomy texts lump the Earth and Moon in a chapter with all the other inner planets. I think this is a mistake. A separate section should be dedicated to the Earth and Moon as a starting point to understanding space.
There are many Earth to space examples to pick from and below I’ll describe a few.
I’ll start on the ground level. The Earth experiences plate tectonics along with resultant earthquake and volcanic activity. Lets take a look at shield volcanoes. These volcanoes vent liquid lava rather than explosive pyroclastic material we typically associate with such events as the Mount St. Helens eruption in 1981. Shield volcanoes are gently sloping (Hence, they resemble shields) as liquid lave runs downhill quickly preventing the buildup of steep slopes. A prominent example are the Hawaiian Island chain situated above the Hawaii hot spot. Why is there a chain rather than just one island? As the Earth’s tectonic plate slides over the hot spot, a chain of islands are formed.
Shield volcano of Mauna Kea in Hawaii where the Keck Observatory sits at the summit. Credit: Wiki Commons.
The largest shield volcano in the Solar System is Olympus Mons on Mars. This volcano stands 16 miles high (Mt. Everest is 5.5 miles high) and has a base the size of Arizona. The low gravity of Mars, a third that of Earth, allows for the extreme height of Olympus Mons. And why is Olympus Mons a single volcano rather than a chain like Hawaii? Mars does not have plate tectonics as Earth does. Hence, the crust of Mars never slid across the hot spot as the Hawaiian Islands did on Earth. Understanding the nature of shield volcanoes on Earth can be integrated into an comprehension that Mars has smaller mass, thus, smaller gravity than Earth and no plate tectonic activity either. Land features are not the only place to find planetary similarities.
Computer generated image of Olympus Mons using data from Mars Global Surveyor laser altimeter. Credit: NASA/MOLA Science Team/ O. de Goursac, Adrian Lark.
The rotation of Earth affects air circulation via the Coriolis effect. In the Northern Hemisphere, air movement is deflected to the right. In the Southern Hemisphere, air movement is deflected to the left. What this means is in the Northern Hemisphere, low pressure systems rotate in a counterclockwise pattern. You can see this in radar shots of hurricane systems which are massive regions of low pressure. High pressure systems rotate in a clockwise pattern. The pattern is reversed in the Southern Hemisphere.
Hurricane Mathew circulating in a counterclockwise fashion. Credit: NOAA.
Now lets take a look at Jupiter’s Giant Red Spot from this time lapse video of the approach of Voyager I in 1979.
Jupiter rotates in the same fashion as Earth. That is, counterclockwise if looking down from the North Pole. At first glance, the Giant Red Spot seems to resemble a hurricane and it might be easy to assume it is an area of low pressure. However, it is in the Southern Hemisphere and rotates counterclockwise. By understanding how the Coriolis effect works on Earth, you can deduce the Giant Red Spot is actually an area of high pressure. Beyond this raging centuries old storm, understanding the nature of Earth’s magnetic field will help one understand the space environment surrounding Jupiter.
Most of the matter we encounter is electrically neutral. That is, their constituent atoms contain as many negatively charged electrons as positively charged protons. In space, the Sun is hot enough to break the atomic bonds between electrons and protons. The result is an electrified gas called plasma. Neon lights are filled with plasma. When plasma encounters a magnetic field, it’s electrically charged particles travel along the path of a magnetic field line in helix pattern seen below.
Credit: cnx.org
This can be visualized on the Sun which has a more complex magnetic field than the Earth. The Solar Dynamics Observatory images plasma traveling along the solar magnetic field lines in formations referred to as coronal loops.
Coronal loops. Credit: SDO/NASA
Back on Earth, these charged particles move along the magnetic field lines until they hit the upper atmosphere in the polar regions. Nitrogen and oxygen atoms absorb the kinetic energy of the incoming particles causing electrons to jump to a higher energy orbit. When the electron moves back to its usual lower energy orbit, the absorbed kinetic energy is converted and released as light. This light is known as the aurora. Earth is not the only planet with an aurora, the gas giants have strong magnetic fields that produce the same effect, albeit mostly in ultraviolet. This presents a good opportunity to understand that light and ultraviolet are both electromagnetic radiation. The difference is our eyes are not designed to detect ultraviolet rays, but our skin can in the form of sunburn. The aurora of Saturn as imaged by the Hubble can be seen below.
Credit: NASA/ESA/J. Clarke (Boston University).
Electrons, when accelerated, will emit radio waves. This is the principle behind radio transmitters. Electrons are accelerated up and down a radio tower causing the transmission of a radio broadcast. The same thing happens in space when electrons are accelerated along the path of a magnetic field line. Jupiter emits radio waves in this fashion that can be detected on Earth with ham radio sets. This process plays itself out in the deepest regions of the universe. For one such example, we’ll take a look a the galaxy Centaurus A located 12 million light years away. Below is an optical image of the galaxy.
Credit: ESO
In 1949, it was discovered this galaxy was a strong emitter of radio waves. Below is a radio image of Centaurus A.
Credit: NRAO/AUI
The radio source emanates perpendicular to the mass of the galaxy. Each lobe is a million light years long (10 times the width of the Milky Way) and would appear 20 times the size of a full Moon if we could see radio waves. This suggests a massive stream of plasma being ejected from the galaxy. What could cause this to happen? In the core of Centaurus A resides a black hole 55 million times the mass of the Sun.
It seems counter-intuitive that a black hole could result in such a massive ejection of matter. We think of black holes as objects that suck in everything, including light. However, some of the matter in the accretion disk surrounding the black hole hits a magnetic field before crossing the event horizon. So instead of continuing into the black hole, the plasma is accelerated and ejected violently along the magnetic field line exiting the galaxy. Below is a composite image of Centaurus A with optical, radio, and x-ray imaging.
Credit: ESO/WFI (Optical); MPIfR/ESO/APEX/A.Weiss et al. (Submillimetre); NASA/CXC/CfA/R.Kraft et al. (X-ray)
There is a tendency to think of Earth science and astronomy as separate fields of study, but as we live on Earth we are also living in space – under the protective cover of the atmosphere. The first step in understanding space is to learn the science behind what we experience in our surroundings. From there, we can explore and understand the universe.
*Image atop post – Earth and the Milky Way from the International Space Station. Credit: NASA.
Dubbed broom stars by Ancient Chinese astronomers, comets have captivated humanity for centuries. From our perspective on Earth, the ephemeral nature of these visitors in the sky were a source of great mythology. The physical understanding of these objects began with Edmond Halley’s prediction in 1705 that a previously observed comet would return in 1758. When the comet made its scheduled rounds that year, it became perhaps the most celebrated of celestial objects and was named after Halley. Photography and spectroscopy beginning in the late 1800’s began to unearth the composition of comets. In 2014, ESA’s Rosetta mission was the first to land a probe on a comet. While comets are only short-term visitors in the night sky on Earth, they are relics from the formative era of the Solar System 4.6 billion years ago.
Donati Comet over London, 1858. First photograph of a comet. Credit: William Usherwood
Rosetta was launched in 2004 and reached Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in 2014. This comet is thought to have originated in the Kuiper Belt beyond Uranus and was gravitationally perturbed into an orbit that reaches just beyond Jupiter every 6.45 years. Why did it take so long for Rosetta to reach its target? The trajectory utilized three flybys of Earth and one of Mars to ramp up to the required velocity to get to the comet. This saves fuel reducing weight lowering mission costs. Along the way, Rosetta also flew by the asteroids 2867 Steins (in 2008) and 21 Lutetia before going into a 31 month deep space hibernation. Below is a video of the complex trajectory of the Rosetta mission.
The presence of water is the key to life on Earth. A crucial question is how did the water get here? The early Earth was very hot, hot enough to boil water so it must have been delivered afterwards with the prime suspects being comets and/or asteroids. Rosetta, named after the stone containing hieroglyphics that deciphered Ancient Egyptian writing, was hoped to have deciphered this part of the ancient Solar System history. What it found was that the water on the comet was heavier than that on Earth.
If you are a World War II buff, you may have heard of heavy water. This type of water has an hydrogen atom with an neutron in addition to the usual proton and is thus, heavier than normal water. Heavy water can be used to produce weapon grade nuclear material and Germany had a program set up in Norway to do so. A series of commando raids in 1942-43 by the Norwegian Resistance knocked these plants, and Germany’s nuclear ambitions, out of commission.
What Rosetta found was Comet 67P had three times the amount of heavy water isotopes than found on Earth, making this type of comet unlikely to have delivered water to Earth. For now, asteroids seem to be the likely candidates but our sample size is still small and more work needs to be done to arrive at a definitive answer.
The other key to life is organic material. Could comets have delivered organic material to Earth during the early bombardment phase of its existence? The mission lander, Philae, was tasked with detecting such material near or on the comet surface. The landing did not go as planned as harpoons designed to keep Philae in place failed to deploy. The lander bounced in the light gravity environment and settled in a shadowed region on the surface. Although this caused Philae’s solar battery to shut down after 60 hours, the lander detected 16 forms of organic material. This material, delivered to Earth billions of years ago, could have served as the precursor to the complex organic chemistry that produces life on Earth.
Philae lander located by Rosetta. Credit: ESA/Rosetta.
What Philae also found is that the surface of the comet was covered with about one foot of soft, dusty material over a hard ice surface. Comets, despite the brightness of their appearance as they get close to the Sun, are actually among the darkest objects in the Solar System. In fact, comets are darker than coal. Keep in mind, coal is organic in nature, representing the end of the life cycle of plants on Earth some 300 million years ago. When we study comets, we are studying ourselves and our origins.
In the final weeks of the mission, it was announced that the Rosetta orbiter detected organic material more complex than what Philae had found. This discovery was made by spectroscopy performed on dust grains captured by Rosetta. Rosetta and Philae would also work in tandem to analyze the interior of the comet. Philae transmitted radio waves through the comet which were received by Rosetta. An analysis of the radio waves indicated Comet 67P is porous and low in density. The nature of the dust grains which are fluffy, rather than compacted, is the cause. Gravity measurements by Rosetta indicated there are no underground cavities in the comet.
And the gravity field of Comet 67P was quite complex. Gravity fields around spherical objects are fairly predictable to orbit. However, Comet 67P has what is now known as a rubber duck shape. This made Rosetta’s orbital maneuvers tricky. It was determined that the rubber duck nucleus was caused by a slow collision of two comets that eventually stuck together.
This just a summary of Rosetta’s discoveries. I would recommend visiting the Rosetta website for the whole shebang.
While it is a sad event, especially for the mission ops team, it’s not the end of the story. The data sent back by Rosetta will be analyzed for years to come and certainly more discoveries will be made. The Mercury Messenger mission ended in similar fashion in 2015 and it was announced this week its data indicated Mercury was still shrinking. In announcing its discoveries, Rosetta had an innovative social media team including a series of great educational animations for children promoting public support for the mission.
Watching the end of Rosetta reminded how different it was during the 1980’s when the mission was first conceived. Back then, you did not get live updates of planetary missions. What you got was maybe a couple minutes on the nightly news and an article in the newspaper the following day. Rosetta was hatched during a difficult time for space exploration.
The global recession of the early 1980’s was not as bad as the Great Recession, but bad enough. Unemployment spiked over 10% both in America and Europe. At one time, the Reagan administration considered axing NASA’s planetary program including Voyager, before it had reached Uranus. Fortunately, that did not happen, but there were no planetary missions launched from 1977 to 1989. We face a similar lull in outer Solar System exploration as both Cassini and Juno will end their missions in 2017 as Rosetta did today. That lull is a result of funding cutbacks after the 2008 financial crisis. While Solar System exploration will not come to a standstill, the budgetary cuts of the early 2010’s scaled back missions that would have been launched in the next few years.
If all good things come to an end, the same is true of all bad things.
I remember during the late 1980’s and early 90’s the future plans for space exploration including the Mars Rovers, the Venus Express, and Cassini which I got to see being built at JPL. This, along with the Great Observatories program, motivated me to return to school and study astronomy. Little did I know back then I would deliver the results of these missions in same day’s time via the internet to my future students.
A new generation of scientists are planning missions to go Europa,Ganymede, and Jupiter. These missions will not launch until the 2020’s and it may not be till the 2030’s when they reach their targets. I look forward to presenting those mission results to a new generation of students just as I have with Rosetta.
* Image atop post is from Rosetta final outreach animation. Credit: ESA/Rosetta
And by that, I do not mean the administration of an educational institution should not be conducted in a businesslike manner. What I mean is that students should not be treated in the same fashion as a business treats a customer. Recent events have focused on for-profit colleges such as ITT Technical Institute which has closed due to irregularities in both academic standards and financial aid. However, a well funded ideological movement is in place at a state level to promote a profit orientated curriculum. Nominally, this is free-market ideology but as we’ll see, in fact, this is detrimental to a well functioning market economy.
Free market models taught in undergrad micro incorporate some pretty abstract concepts. These include competition to the point that neither an individual buyer or seller can impact the price of a product. Also, both buyer and seller has perfect knowledge of the market which leads to a rational transaction process. These conditions result in an optimal allocation of resources. This model is akin to the Carnot engine in physics. No engine can run more efficiently than a Carnot engine. However, the Carnot engine is impossible to build as it requires zero friction and would violate the 2nd law of thermodynamics. What the Carnot engine does is help us understand the inefficiencies of real engines and the same is true of basic free market models. In the case of education, perfect knowledge, or lack thereof, is the key.
Asymmetric information in a competitive situation presents profit opportunity depending on who holds the upper hand. It is why inside information, despite its illegality, is often sought in financial markets. It is why websites offer pricing information on products such as gasoline to arm consumers in the market. In its more egregious forms, it is how some auto repair shops dupe customers in repairs they do not need or doctors charge for procedures a patient does not require. In a non-business sense, it is why a sports team will attempt to steal signals from the opposition to get the advantage in a competitive contest. Information asymmetry is not always unethical, but it is why businesses do not voluntarily disclose their hands when making a deal, and why businesses, if they are smart, require due diligence before closing a deal.
Education has information problems on two fronts. One is temporal and the other is the lack of information the student has enrolling in an educational institution. As Alfred Marshall noted in 1890, students are in the dark as to how valuable in monetary terms their education will be years down the road. Conversely, future employers have no way of investing in education years before they even meet a student. For Marshall, this meant the free-market would in general fund education below optimal levels and necessitated public funding to make up the gap. The lack of information on the student side of the equation also means an educational institution operating on a for profit basis may seek to exploit this asymmetry for gain just as a business would.
In terms of social policy, the role of education is to reduce, not to exploit, information shortfalls a student possesses.
Kenneth Arrow, in his landmark paper on asymmetric information in the health care industry, notes that social structures are established to protect a patient against exploitation. Arrow notes that the societal expectation of a physician’s behavior towards a patient is much different than that of a salesman towards a customer. A doctor is expected to act with the patient’s welfare in mind. Some of the expectations are by nature of the social contract such as the Hippocratic Oath, some are monetary in nature such as ACA regulations which stipulate that reimbursement for services are tied to patient health outcomes. Given that students enroll in a school with the same kind of information disadvantage, it is sensible that educational institutions operate within a similar framework.
Recently, the Frank-Dodd Act has enacted regulations upon financial institutions to act on a customer’s behalf in situations when the institution has a higher degree of product awareness. One, of many, of the factors leading to the mortgage bubble was a lack of understanding of the product customers were signing into. One such example would be daily simple interest mortgages. These mortgages accrue interest on a daily, rather than a monthly, basis as most standard mortgages do. The end result is that homeowners who paid their mortgage bill after the due date but before the late fee grace period expired would still be left with thousands of dollars in unpaid principal balances when the loan matured, risking default. The new regulations endeavor to ensure customers do not enter such agreements without an understanding of such details.
If financial institutions are being required to act on a customers behalf, why on Earth would we not expect educational institutions to do the same, if not even more so, on a student’s behalf?
And if the role of education is not to arm students with information, what is it for? One suspects those who desire to enforce free market ideology on education wish to keep students in the dark so they are always potential marks for the next scam. Part of the current free market movement is to provide economic instruction based on an uncritical study of the works of Ayn Rand, a fiction writer, into the classroom. That’s like teaching astronomy based on an uncritical viewing of Star Wars films. I happen to enjoy Star Wars, but I am not going up to a NASA engineer and suggest they use The Force to get to Mars. The role of education is to prompt students to up their intellectual game, to challenge assumptions, to bump their preconceptions against empirical observations, the exact opposite of what ideologues of any stripe do. There may be an Absolute Truth to the universe, but it’s not going to be held in the confines of a single mind.
As for those who believe only “career-orientated” curriculum should be offered, Alfred Marshall, the father of classical economics, had this to say:
“For a truly liberal general education adapts the mind to use its best faculties in business and to use business itself as a means of increasing culture“
After all, a market-based economy, like democracy, will operate most efficiently with a well informed citizenry.
During my days as an Econ major, one of my professors used to admonish us that even if an economic doctrine was outdated, if it had any staying power, some part of it most likely was insightful. That is, don’t be so quick to put it up on a shelf and label as 100% toxic. In this spirit, I am going to take a look at Donald Trump’s (And taking Trump in this spirit becomes more difficult with each passing day) ideas on trade and how it would apply to my hometown of Buffalo. While visiting us this summer, Trump promised to bring tons of jobs back to Buffalo by renegotiating international trade treaties. While most of Trump’s speech was a meandering stream of consciousness, this line resonated with the crowd in a city that is finally starting to turn things around after decades of manufacturing job losses. Could such a policy bring back jobs to the working class in Buffalo?
It is said that success has many parents while failure is an orphan. Actually, as we’ll find out, economic successes and failures both have many parents. Both are a result of several factors coalescing together and it is unlikely a policy fixating on a single issue can change the momentum of one or the other.
In 1954, Buffalo had 152,000 manufacturing jobs. Prior to the opening of the St. Lawrence Seaway, Great Lakes freighters unloaded in Buffalo to transfer goods into canal boats and later trains for shipment to the East Coast. This made Buffalo a strategic spot for manufactures to locate. In the 1800’s, grain came from the Midwest and was milled into various food products in Buffalo. To process the large amounts of grain pouring into Buffalo Harbor, Joseph Dart invented the grain elevator. These large structures remain a prominent feature on the city’s waterfront.
Grain elevators at foot of Main Street in 1900. These first generation wood elevators have been replaced by the modern cement cylindrical elevators. Credit: Detroit Publishing Co./Library of Congress
After the Erie Canal, trains, and grain, came electricity. Nikola Tesla, leaving the employ of Thomas Edison, built with George Westinghouse the first hydroelectric plant in Niagara Falls. Using alternating current which, unlike Edison’s direct current, did not require power plants every mile, this electricity could be delivered 20 miles south to Buffalo. Buffalo became the “City of Light” and this new technology was featured prominently in the 1901 Pan-American Exposition.
The Pan-American Expo Electric Tower, 1901. Credit: Buffalo History Museum.
At the same time of the Pan-American Exposition, land was being acquired south of Buffalo by the Lackawanna Steel Corp. Buffalo was close to ore fields that supplied raw material and with cheap hydroelectricity along with access to Great Lakes shipping and Buffalo’s extensive rail network, this was an ideal spot for steel production. By World War II, then known as Bethlehem Steel, the plant employed over 20,000 people. The local steel production capabilities attracted the auto industry. Some, like Pierce-Arrow did not last past the 1930’s, but Chevrolet and Ford became mainstays and employed thousands in several plants across the region. In 1916, Glenn Curtiss moved his aviation production plant from Hammondsport in the Finger Lakes to Buffalo. During the first half of the 20th Century, Buffalo was major hub for aircraft production with employment hitting 70,000 (about the same number Apple employs in the U.S.) during World War II. Buffalo’s industrial development was a classic case of economic geographical clustering.
Republic Steel, Mobil Oil refinery, Donner Hanna Coke, railroad network all intertwined in Buffalo’s Inner Harbor, 1958. Credit: Wiki Commons.
Geographic clustering of economic activity was addressed by Alfred Marshall in 1890 and as a theory, was dormant for another century until economists, especially Paul Krugman, gave it another look. In particular, it was found the manufacturing sector benefits greatly from clustering while for the post-industrial economy the effects are more diffuse. In the case of Buffalo, clustering was caused by access to transportation via canal, trains, and the Great Lakes connecting the Midwest and East Coast. In 1950, half the population of the United States lived in a 500 mile radius from Buffalo providing a ready market for goods. Niagara Falls presented a bottleneck that forced shipments to funnel through Buffalo Being first also counts and the invention of the grain elevator, generation of AC current, and aviation production at the birth of the industry gave Buffalo a jump start. Labor poured into the region both in the form of immigration and internal migration from rural areas. The concentration of experienced labor also produces high productivity from knowledge spillovers as less experienced labor benefits from close proximity to more skilled workers. This in turn can generate high wages when the labor market is competitive and in good bargaining position.
Curtiss-Wright plant P-40 production in 1941. Photo: Dmitri Kessel, Life Magazine
In 1951, Fortune featured a cover story titled Made in Buffalo which described a dynamic and diverse manufacturing center.
How did it all unwind?
Again, many factors coalesced to produce Buffalo’s downward spiral. In 1938, when the local auto industry began shifting from auto to component assembly, Bethlehem Steel would stop investing in its flat rolling capacity due to lack of demand. After World War II, Curtiss-Wright laid off 35,000 workers and then left Buffalo for good in 1946 for Ohio. Bell Aircraft also greatly downsized but stuck around long enough to build Chuck Yeager’s X-1 and the Apollo program’s lunar module simulator. Eventually, Bell left for Texas in the 1960’s. Other industries, for example, Westinghouse and Western Electric picked up the slack. That was something Alfred Marshall would have predicted fifty years prior:
“A district which is dependent chiefly on one industry is liable to extreme depression, in case of a falling-off in the demand for its produce, or of a failure in the supply of the raw material which it uses. This evil again is in a great measure avoided by those large towns or large industrial districts in which several distinct industries are strongly developed.”
However, an infrastructure project in the 1950’s removed Buffalo strategic bottleneck location for transportation.
The completion of the St. Lawrence Seaway enabled shipping to bypass Buffalo and head directly to the East Coast or overseas. Grain shipments dropped dramatically and many of the waterfront elevators were abandoned. Still, the steel and auto industries were going strong. Buffalo continued to grow and prosper along with the rest of the nation into the 1960’s, but the reduced diversity of the economy left the region increasingly vulnerable to economic shocks.
Buffalo’s winter grain fleet anchored in outer harbor during winter to supply wheat for milling. This annual sight vanished in the early 1970’s. Credit: https://www.wnyheritagepress.org/content/lake_ice_and_lake_commerce/index.html
The energy crisis during the 1970’s sparked a demand for smaller cars which Japanese auto-makers specialized in. This reduced demand for products made in Buffalo’s auto plants and in turn, its steel mills. Bethlehem Steel poured investments into its Indiana plant which was closer to the expanding population westward. Poor labor relations, outdated production methods, and questionable management practices dropped Bethlehem’s employment from 22,000 in 1969 to 5,000 when finally closed in 1983. Republic Steel, once home to 5,000 employees followed suit in 1984. In 1985, Trico moved 1,000 jobs from Buffalo to Mexico where workers made less than $1 an hour. As manufacturing de-clustered from Buffalo, the region became less and less attractive to locate.
And what is the point of this history?
This all happened before NAFTA went into effect in 1994. Renegotiating NAFTA will not undo all the factors that drove manufacturing jobs from Buffalo. This isn’t to say the matter should not be open to debate. Personally, I do not believe nations with widespread child labor and lax environmental regulation should have unfettered access to American markets. But a reworking of NAFTA will not magically bring jobs back to Buffalo. In fact, it would likely hamper access to the 9 million Toronto-Niagara Peninsula market just across the border. Given that Canada is America’s top trading partner in terms of exports, renegotiating NAFTA would definitely cost jobs in Buffalo while the benefits are at best, uncertain.
Allied Chemical discharging dyes into Buffalo River. Buffalo’s manufacturing legacy did not come without a price. Credit: New York Department of Environmental Conservation.
And this brings up the greatest flaw in the Trump plan, fixating on a single issue as an economic cure. Typically, you’ll see this with taxes, most recently in Kansas. Gov. Sam Brownback’s tax cuts were intended to entice business into the state. Whatever enticement the tax cuts were to bring business in the state have been offset by cuts to education and infrastructure spending. The latter reduces incentive for business to locate to Kansas. Or take a look at New York City where residents have had to pay a city income tax in addition to state taxes since 1966. During this period New York City has experienced a decade (1970’s) where it lost 800,000 residents but also has gained 1.1 million residents since 1990. Taxes should be considered as a factor in economic policy, but it is not a sole determinant of economic growth. And neither is trade.
Conversely, economic models tend to smooth over the rocky transition from employment in one economic sector to another. What is happening to manufacturing in America is to some extent the same thing that happened to farming in the first half of the 20th Century. In 1920, farmers were 30% of the American population. Today, that figure is two percent. Mechanization of farming has reduced the need for labor. The same is true of manufacturing. The days when a steel mill required tens of thousands of employees are over, leading to a migration of labor to low paying service sector jobs. In academia or policy think tanks, this transition is often reduced to a mathematical abstraction. Hopefully, the work of Angus Deaton, whose research has revealed a decline in life expectancy of working class white Americans, will provide some “ground truth” for economic models.
The cause of that decline in life expectancy is mostly related to alcohol and drug abuse. For those of us on the ground level have certainly seen this in the struggle of economic transition. Other parts of the equation are foreclosures, divorce, social isolation, and in the worst case scenario, suicide. So what is the proper policy response? You have to try a lot of things across several fronts. And going into this, an understanding this will be a trial and error process. Not everything tried will succeed. Like any sort of forecasting, we are looking at probabilities of success.
On a national level, a fiscal/monetary policy goal of driving unemployment down to 4% should have highest priority. This will make local efforts more manageable. Pragmatism should have a priority over ideology in policy making. The private and public sector are like air and gas in an auto engine. An optimal mixture provides best performance. On a state level, stop the starvation of public funding for state universities. For those who do not go to college, open up access to skilled trade/technical training. While the labor market has improved significantly since 2008, those who were ejected from the workforce have had difficulty with re-entry and unemployment duration remains at post-war highs. Individuals who have lost jobs due to a financial crisis not of their making should not be treated as pariahs in the job market. This will not remove from the political process the more unseemly aspects of the Trump campaign, but will ideally push it off to the sidelines where it belongs.
Over the past few years, Buffalo has undergone something of a renaissance. The University of Buffalo’s new medical campus is spurring development in the city. Immigrants and refugees are infusing new life to old neighborhoods while Elon Musk’s SolarCity is building the Western Hemisphere’s largest solar panel plant on the site where Republic Steel once resided. Hopefully, this can give the region a jump start in an emergent industry and begin a clustering effect anew. Although manufacturing has declined to 50,000 jobs in the area, ghosts of Buffalo’s past can still be seen. The steel mills are gone but Chevy and Ford still employ thousands, if you hang out in Canalside long enough, eventually you’ll see a 700-foot lake freighter making a visit to one of the grain elevators still in operation, no longer the second largest rail center in the nation, on a quiet weekend morning I can still hear train activity in the Frontier Yard. Powerful reminders of Buffalo’s past, but as an individuals, we need to look towards the future. To quote an old Clint Eastwood character:
“You improvise, you adapt, you overcome.”
It’s as good advice as any.
*Photo atop post is 2010 aerial view of Buffalo. Credit: Doc Searls/Wiki Commons.
Maps of the universe can understate the sheer vastness of space. Even when distances are to scale, the size of celestial bodies are overly large and for good reason. If the size of the objects were true to scale, they would be too small to see. To get a grasp of the true nature of space, I am going to scale various systems using 10 miles as a base. This is still pretty large but as the average commute in the United States is about 10 miles, this is a scale that is familiar in our day-to-day lives.
We’ll start with the Earth-Moon system. The Moon is on average 238,855 miles from Earth. Here, we’ll put the scale at 1 mile = 24,000 miles. So, if we shrink the Earth and Moon to this scale, Earth will sit in the center while the Moon resides 9.95 miles away. How big is the Earth? The diameter of the Earth would be 1741 feet, about 100 feet less than the CN Tower in Toronto. The troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere where weather occurs and humans live, would only extend about 20 inches above the surface. Here, you can see why astronauts comment on how from space, the atmosphere appears as a fragile protective layer that just hugs the Earth’s surface. The upper layers of the atmosphere extend out 66 feet above the surface. Also at 66 feet, you’ll find the Hubble Space Telescope. The drag from the tenuous upper atmosphere will be enough to bring the Hubble down to Earth in the 2020’s just as happened to Skylab in 1979. Here, you can appreciate the accomplishment of the Apollo program which traveled, on this scale, 9.95 miles to the Moon as opposed to 66 feet to reach Earth orbit.
Next up is the Solar System. We’ll change the scale to 1 mile = 1 billion miles. At this scale, the distance from the Earth to the Moon shrinks to 15 inches. The Earth itself is half an inch or about the size of a marble. In this model, we’ll put the Sun at the center and the table below will show what the Solar System looks like at this scale.
Object
Diameter
Distance from Sun
Sun
4.75 feet
–
Mercury
0.19 inch
190 feet
Venus
0.48 inch
354 feet
Earth
0.50 inch
491 feet
Mars
0.27 inch
748 feet
Asteroid Belt
0.01 – 0.03 inches
1080 to 1570 feet
Jupiter
5.50 inches
0.48 miles or 2,550 feet
Saturn
4.59 inches
0.89 miles or 4,688 feet
Uranus
2 inches
1.8 miles
Neptune
1.94 inches
2.8 miles
Pluto
0.09 inch
3.67 miles
Kuiper Belt
0.001 to 0.09 inches
2.5 to 4.5 miles
Voyager I & II
–
12.5 & 10.3 miles
On this scale, a trip to the Moon is 15 inches, to Mars some 250 feet. As NASA people like to say, Mars is hard. Going from the Moon, to the planets, and as we’ll see, to the stars each involves an exponential leap. The Voyager missions, in space since 1977, have just reached the outer edges of our 10 mile map. Note how much more massive the Sun is compared to the planets as it contains 99% of the mass in the Solar System. Also note how tiny the asteroids are and on this scale, there is an average of 38 inches of separation between the objects in the asteroid belt. Contrary to what you see in many sci-fi stories, there is plenty of space in an asteroid belt to navigate through. Beyond the asteroid belt lie the gas giants. This region was far enough from the Sun and cold enough to allow hydrogen compounds to freeze and utilize the abundant hydrogen in the solar nebula to form these giant planets. In turn, the gas giant Jupiter’s gravity disrupted the formation of a planet in the asteroid belt.
Now, we’ll examine our neck of the woods in the Milky Way by taking a look at a region 10 light years from the Sun. On this scale, we’ll put 1 mile = 1 light year. Maps of our stellar neighborhood are not as ubiquitous in grade school as the Solar System so below is a look at our closest neighbors.
Stellar Neighborhood 12.5 light years from Sun. Credit: Richard Powell
This region is embedded in what is called the Local Bubble, a peanut shaped area 300 light years across marked by tenuous, hot stellar gas. It is thought that a series of supernovae 10-20 million years ago cleared out much of the interstellar gas in the Local Bubble. On this scale, the solar system shrinks to 9 feet and the Sun is the size of a grain of sand. The nearest star, Proxima Centauri, would be 4.24 miles away. So, the leap from a Voyager type mission to visiting the nearest star on this scale is 9 feet to 4.24 miles. The brightest star in the night sky, Sirius, would be 8.6 miles away. Wolf 359 is not visible to the naked eye, but known to Star Trek fans where Star Fleet is destroyed by the Borg, would lie 7.8 miles away. Galaxies often collide, but because of the spacing, stars rarely do. This is key due to an impeding event to occur to the Milky Way in a few billion years.
Credit: Andrew Z. Colvin/Wiki Commons
The Local Galactic Group consists of some 54 galaxies clustered within 10 million light years. Most are small, dwarf galaxies. Here, we’ll use the scale 1 mile = 1 million light years. The Milky Way would be 1/10th (528 feet) of a mile wide. The Solar System lies 137 feet from the center of the Milky Way and is 0.0001 inches wide, about 1,000 times thinner than a human hair. The closest galaxies to the Milky Way, the Magellanic Clouds, lie about 830 feet away. The Andromeda Galaxy (M31), would be 2.5 miles away. The Andromeda galaxy is larger than the Milky Way and would span over 1,100 feet across. Compare this to the size and spacing to stars. Galaxies are much larger and tend to collide into each other.
Until the 1920’s, the Milky Way was the only known galaxy. Other galaxies were observed but were thought to be spiral nebulae within the Milky Way. Edwin Hubble, working at Mt. Wilson, was able to resolve stars within the Andromeda Galaxy and determined it was situated beyond the Milky Way. Taking measurements of other galaxies, Hubble also discovered the universe was expanding causing galaxies to race away from each other. When galaxies are close enough, at times the gravitational attraction to each other is greater than the effect of the expansion of the universe. The result is a collision between galaxies such as below.
NGC 2623, two colliding spiral galaxies. Credit: Hubble Legacy Archive, ESA, NASA
The same will happen to the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies in a few billion years. Stars will not collide but some may be ejected in the process. The end result is the two galaxies will merge to form a giant elliptical galaxy.
Galaxies are not the only objects to collide in the universe, galaxy clusters also can collide. Some 150 million light years away (or 150 miles using the current scale) lies the Great Attractor. This region lies behind the center of the Milky Way and thus, is not open to optical observation. It is hoped that infrared and radio observations, which can peer behind the veil of dust at the galactic center, can someday provide details what the Great Attractor is.
The largest structures in the universe are galactic superclusters. The Milky Way and Local Group reside in the supercluster Laniakea which is some 520 million light years in length. Superclusters form filament type structures with large voids in between.
Credit: NASA, ESA, and E. Hallman (University of Colorado, Boulder)
To get a proper perspective on our home supercluster, lets use a scale of 1 mile = 50 million light years. On this scale, Laniakea stretches out the entire 10 miles. the Local Group of galaxies would be 1/5 of a mile (1,056 feet) wide. The Milky Way would be about 10 feet across. And as we can see from the image above, Laniakea is just a small part of the web of superclusters throughout the universe.
I have heard many students after taking an astronomy course say that it made them feel like an ant. I remind them of what Fritz Zwiky said – each person in this vast universe is unique and thus, irreplaceable. And that is of no small significance.
*Image atop of post is the Milky Way from the delicate arch in Natural Bridges National Monument in Utah. Credit: Jacob W. Frank/National Park Service
Recent misgivings expressed by Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein on the safety of vaccinations has created another round in the vaccine/autism debate. I use the word debate loosely here as we’ll see, there really should not be a debate at all on this topic. In all fairness, Stein expressed concerns over potential industry capture of vaccine regulators, but that concern has been shot down effectively and some view this as merely a dog whistle for anti-vaxxers. To be clear on this, the purported link between vaccines and autism is simply a case of scientific fraud and should be reported as such without mitigation. However, once an idea, even a fraudulent one is let loose, it is very difficult to dislodge from the public mindset. And that presents an arduous challenge for educators and policy makers alike.
The case for linking autism with vaccines began with the 1998 paper authored by Andrew Wakefield and 12 others stating their case. Serious reservations regarding the research was expressed shortly after its publication. The study had a small sample size and relied too heavily on parents recollections rather than hard data. As is the case for scientific protocol, attempts were made to replicate the results of the Wakefield study. In 2004, an extensive report by the National Academy of Sciences refuted any link between vaccines and autism. The Center for Disease Control has followed up with nine studies confirming the National Academy of Science’s report. As it turned out, there was a reason the Wakefield study was not confirmed. The Wakefield report was not just bad science, but a fraud perpetrated to cash in on a potential lawsuit against manufactures of vaccines.
This is how the original paper purporting a link between vaccines and autism now appears on the Lancet website.
“Is it possible that he (Wakefield) was wrong, but not dishonest: that he was so incompetent that he was unable to fairly describe the project, or to report even one of the 12 children’s cases accurately? No. A great deal of thought and effort must have gone into drafting the paper to achieve the results he wanted: the discrepancies all led in one direction; misreporting was gross.”
The BMJ also published an article by journalist Brian Deer that exposed Wakefield’s motivation for engaging in the fraud. As it turned out, the medical records for all 12 children in the study were falsified. The motive? Wakefield was receiving compensation by a law firm to provide research that could bring a favorable result in a lawsuit against vaccine manufactures. The compensation amounted to £435,643 ($700,000 in 1999). And the damage done? In the UK, the vaccination rate for measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) dropped to 80% by 2003. Fortunately, that has rebounded back to 92%. In the United States, vaccination rates held steady between 90-92%, but geographical pockets of low immunization rates put children at risk of acquiring easily avoidable diseases such as the 2015 measles outbreak in Southern California.
So how could such a fraud still be considered a legitimate topic to debate in some quarters? The answer lies in confirmation bias. Science works by matching theory with data. Sometimes, the theory comes first and is later proved by experiment. This happened with James Clerk Maxwell’s theory of electromagnetism developed in 1867 and proved correct with the discovery of radio waves in the late 1880’s. Sometimes the data comes before a theory is devised to explain it as the case with dark energy discovered in 1998. Astrophysicists are currently attempting to devise a theory to describe the accelerated expansion of the universe caused by dark energy. Sometimes both, as in the case of general relativity published by Einstein in 1916. Einstein’s theory solved the existing problem of Mercury’s orbit that Newton could not, but had to wait until the Eddington Expedition in 1919 to prove space-time could bend light waves.
The key point here is that in science, a theory or model of a physical process must match the experimental data or it is wrong. If an experiment cannot be devised to prove a theory, such as currently the case with string theory, it is simply unproven until such an experiment is produced. However, those not trained in science tend to construct understanding via a narrative. In the case of autism, the vaccine issue fills a gap in the narrative that science presently does not, that being an understanding how to prevent it. And once a narrative is constructed, confirmation bias develops when facts that go against the narrative are rejected which is the opposite of how science works. So how to go about getting the facts out?
To begin with, especially in a classroom situation, do not belittle the other person. Doing so only motivates retrenchment. This is why arguments are rarely, if ever, resolved on social media. Once the insults start flying, forget about it. In the class, it is important for each student to feel they have a fair role in the discussion. For example, if a student holds creationist beliefs, I point out the father of the Big Bang really was a father, that is, Fr. Georges Lemaitre who was both a Catholic priest and astrophysicist responsible for conceptualizing the Big Bang by analyzing relativity theory. Holding religious beliefs does not preclude someone from appreciating science and in the case of Lemaitre, performing scientific work at a high level. In the case of vaccinations, expressing an understanding the other side’s concerns with a serious children’s health issue can go a long way in creating a constructive dialog. The public generally does not read medical journals and the media, in some quarters, has been irresponsible in its reporting leading to the construction of a false narrative.
Once the student understands you are giving them a place at the table in the debate, go over the scientific method once again. In a one off argument this is a bit difficult and thus, is something that is to be emphasized throughout the course. Theory must meet experimental data which must be independently confirmed. Over the course of time, the goal is to move a student from an ideological to a scientific mindset. Doing so will open the student up to being more receptive to data that contradicts a previously held belief which in turn can reduce confirmation bias. And sometimes, it is best to acknowledge science does not currently offer an explanation. In the case of autism, we have to admit we do not know what its cause is rather than allowing a charlatan to fill a gap in a narrative.
On the other hand, those such as Andrew Wakefield, who have perpetuated this myth with the intent of monetary and/or political gain, simply deserve to be rebuked and marginalized from any policy debate regarding vaccinations.
*Image atop post is polio vaccinations during 1954 in Kansas. Credit: March of Dimes.
During the Apollo era, I remember gazing at the Moon to find the areas where astronauts were exploring at the time. Even with the most powerful telescopes, we are unable to detect the flags and equipment left behind, but it still is an interesting challenge to pick out these spots and not a bad way to learn about the Moon as well. Recently, the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter has been able to image these landing spots and made some discoveries that point to some other interesting potential landing regions should we return.
Apollo landing sites. Credit: Soerfm/Wiki Commons
The Moon is divided into two types of terrain, the highlands which are the bright regions and the maria which are the darker areas. The highlands are very old, about 4-4.5 billion years and thus, heavily cratered. This makes the highlands geologically rich but challenging to land on. The maria are younger and thus easier to make a landing attempt as the terrain is smoother. The maria were formed 3-3.5 billion years ago when large impacts flooded basins with lava eventually to solidify into the dark, iron rich basaltic surfaces we see today. Maria is derived from the Latin word for seas which ancient astronomers thought these dark areas were. Of course, there are no large bodies water to be found in the maria. Like the first Apollo landings, a return to the Moon will likely begin in the maria and expand outward into more challenging landing zones.
Apollo 11
Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin spent 21.5 hours on the lunar surface on the Sea of Tranquility. Just before the famous Christmas Eve reading of Genesis by the Apollo 8 crew, William Anders noted the Sea of Tranquility was selected as a future landing site in order to preclude dodging mountains. While there were not any mountains to dodge, there were several large boulders causing Neil Armstrong to take manual control of the lunar module, eventually finding a safe landing spot with 25 seconds of fuel to spare. Apollo 11 returned 22 kg (48 lbs) of samples back to Earth. As would be expected from landing in a mare region, the rocks were mostly basalt created from lava when the region formed. There were also breccias which are smaller fragmented rocks fused together over time.
Apollo 11 landing site from 15 miles above the lunar surface. The foot trail to the crater right center is 50 m (164 ft) and was furthest Armstrong and Aldrin ventured from the lunar module. Credit: NASA.
Apollo 12
Launched during a rainstorm, the crew of Apollo 12 had to experience the adventure of getting hit by lightning before reaching orbit and proceeding to the Moon. Like Apollo 11, this mission landed in a mare region. The Ocean of Storms (or Oceanus Procellarum in Latin) was the landing site of Surveyor 3 in 1967. NASA wanted to aim for a precise landing near Surveyor 3 and examine samples in this region which appeared younger than the Sea of Tranquility. Astronauts Pete Conrad and Alan Bean made two excursions on the lunar surface reaching half a mile away from the lunar module. The samples were mostly basalt and, as expected, were 500 million years younger than the Sea of Tranquility establishing a range for lunar volcanic activity. The crew also visited the Surveyor 3 and retrieved its television camera which is currently on display at the Smithsonian Air & Space Museum.
Pete Conrad checks out Surveyor 3 with lunar module 600 feet away in the background. Credit: NASA.
Apollo 14
After the Apollo 13 landing was aborted due to an explosion in a service module oxygen tank, its intended landing site in the Fra Mauro formation was slated for the Apollo 14 mission. This was the first landing to occur in the lunar highlands. This region contains rocks ejected by the formation of the Imbrium basin and it was hoped to capture samples that originated deep under the lunar surface. The plan was also to capture samples from the nearby Cone Crater but the rugged terrain prevented the astronauts from reaching the rim. Alan Shepard and Edgar Mitchell collected almost 42 kg (92 lbs) of rock samples most of which were breccia formed by rocks fragmented by the impact event. The crew did collect some basalts which clocked in at 4-4.3 billion years old, significantly older than the earlier basalts collected. Apollo 14 also had perhaps the most humorous event of the program with Alan Shepard’s attempt to play golf on the Moon.
Apollo 15
Hadley Rille from space with circle denoting Apollo 15 landing site. Credit: NASA
Apollo 15 began the J-series missions for the program. These missions were more ambitious with longer duration stays and with the lunar rover, the ability to travel longer distances from the lunar module. Apollo 15 was the first landing to stray away from the equatorial region. David Scott and James Irwin spent some 18 hours exploring the lunar surface and traveled 28 km (17 miles-compared to 2 miles on foot for Apollo 14) on the rover. A major target was the Hadley Rille. Rilles are sinuous features on the Moon thought to be ancient lava tubes whose ceilings have since collapsed. Indeed, the rocks returned from this region were basaltic in nature. By the time Apollo 15 landed on the Moon, the final three missions (Apollo 18-20) were cancelled due to budget cuts, meaning there were only two trips to the Moon left for the program.
The 300 meter (1,000 feet) deep Hadley Rille from the lunar surface. Credit: NASA.
Apollo 16
This mission was specifically designed to bring back samples from the highlands. Landing in the Descartes formation, Apollo 16 would return 96 kg (211 lbs) of Moon rocks that would fundamentally alter our understanding of the highlands. Previously thought to be of volcanic nature, the sample contained very few basalt rocks. Instead, the samples were breccia in nature. Rocks on the Moon are fragmented when impacts occur. These fragmented rocks are then fused together to form breccia rocks by the heat caused by subsequent impacts. The age of the highland are 4.5 billion years old. This dates back to the origin of the Moon as it cooled from a molten to a solid state.
Charlie Duke takes a sample of permanently shadowed soil next to the large boulder named, appropriately enough, Shadow Rock. Credit: NASA
Apollo 17
As this was the final Apollo mission, a sense of urgency was placed on obtaining a high scientific yield. At one point, a landing on the far side was considered but rejected as it would require the additional cost of a communication satellite. The far side is often confused as the dark side of the Moon. However, during the new Moon phase the far side is facing the Sun and experiences daylight. The far side differs from the near side as it is mostly highlands and has very little maria regions as can be seen below.
Credit: NASA/Goddard/Arizona State University
The site selected was Taurus-Littrow Valley, a very geologically diverse region that required a precision landing. For this mission, Harrison Schmitt was moved up from the cancelled Apollo 18 mission to become the first astronaut-scientist. Three days after the only night launch of the Apollo program, America made its final Moon landing. Three excursions extending 25 km (15 miles) brought back a haul of 111 kg (245 lbs) of samples including highland rocks ranging from 4.2-4.5 billion years old, basaltic rocks from the valley floor indicating volcanic activity about 3.7 billion years ago, and ejecta from the Tycho crater that was 100 million years old. By lunar standards, the Tycho crater is a relatively young feature even though dinosaurs were walking on Earth when created.
Apollo 17 lunar rover at the edge of Shorty Crater. Near the rim there is orange soil that is titanium rich pyroclastic glass originated from 10 meters below the surface but was ejected during the impact event. Credit: NASA.
Lunar Interlude
The scientific phase of the Apollo program, which was to be 18-20, was cancelled by President Nixon as the economy began to experience its first bout of both high inflation and unemployment that would plagued the economy during the 1970’s. Two of the unused Saturn V’s are on display at the Kennedy and Johnson Space Centers. NASA began to develop the space shuttle and its planetary exploration program. The public lost interest in lunar exploration as there was a sense of been there, done that. However, the lunar surface covers an area 38 million square km (14.6 million square miles), about four times the surface area of the United States. As NASA began to recommence unmanned lunar exploration in the 1990’s, the Moon began to offer some surprises.
Lunar exploration was started again in 1994 with the Clementine mission that globally mapped the Moon, in particular, the 15 km (9 mile) deep South Pole-Aitken Basin. This was followed by the Lunar Prospector in 1998. The Moon had been thought to be completely water free but the Lunar Prospector detected the presence of 300 million tons of water mixed in the soil at both polar regions. How could water exist on the Moon? The Moon’s axis is only tilted 1.5 degrees. This means the Sun in these regions can only reach 1.5 degrees above the horizon, roughly the same as the Sun about ten minutes after sunrise in the mid-latitudes on Earth. Hence, large craters remain in permanent shadow so that any water there will not evaporate into space.
Blue indicates regions on Moon where water may exist. Credit: NASA.
However, the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), launched in 2009, discovered the presence of hydrogen beyond shadowed areas of the Moon. The water could have been delivered to the Moon very early in its history via comets. It is also thought the solar wind, which carries hydrogen, could interact with oxygen embedded in silicates on the surface to form water. To be sure, we’re not talking lakes or even underground springs here. The water amounts to about 45 parts per million, but given the cost to lift material from Earth into space (about $10,000 per ounce), any long-term settlement on the Moon will require the use of raw material situated there. This gives some promise that the Moon could be used as a base to colonize space.
Above – LRO’s high-resolution tour of the Moon
NASA is currently developing the Orion crew module along with the heavy lift Space Launch System which will make an unmanned test run past the Moon in 2018. The ultimate goal of this program is to land humans on Mars although a lunar program to test mission systems beforehand is not out of the question. Going to the Moon is only a three-day hop compared to seven months for Mars. Using the Moon as a testbed could make sense before making the leap to Mars. It is often argued that unmanned missions are less expensive, and less hazardous than crewed spaceflight. However, humanity is hardwired to explore and expand its presence. That is how we expanded beyond our origins on the African continent across the oceans to all corners of the Earth. Hopefully, in the near future, children will once again gaze at the Moon and ponder the about the people exploring our nearest celestial neighbor.
